The ongoing public offer of Dangote Refinery shares is attracting Nigerians looking to profit from the company’s growth, but the investment does not guarantee quick or automatic wealth.
The N2.15tn initial public offering involves 4.1 billion shares priced at N525 each, with the minimum subscription set at 10 shares, worth N5,250 before applicable charges.
The offer, which is scheduled to close on October 13, has drawn interest from first-time investors hoping to use potential gains from the shares to meet major financial goals.
One investor, Ifeoluwa Balogun, said she bought 80 shares for about N42,000 and hopes the investment will eventually help her raise money to buy land in Ogun State.
However, the future value of her investment will depend on how Dangote Refinery performs and how the shares trade after listing.
If the shares rise from N525 to N1,050, an investor holding 80 shares would have an investment worth N84,000. If the price reaches N5,250, the same holding would be valued at N420,000.
These outcomes are not guaranteed, as the share price could also fall below the IPO price, reducing the value of investors’ holdings.
Interest in the offer has been supported by the refinery’s recent financial performance. Dangote Refinery recorded $13.91bn in revenue in the first half of 2026, with EBITDA of $2.60bn and a net profit of $1.82bn.
The strong performance represents a significant improvement from the loss recorded by the refinery in 2025.
However, future earnings could be affected by changes in crude oil prices, refining margins, foreign exchange rates, petroleum product demand and developments in the global energy market.
Dangote Refinery currently has a crude processing capacity of 700,000 barrels per day and plans to increase this to 1.4 million barrels per day. The complex also includes petrochemical operations, storage facilities, marine infrastructure and logistics.
For investors, the long-term value of the shares will depend on the company’s ability to sustain production, grow earnings, manage its finances and generate returns for shareholders.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has advised prospective investors to study the approved prospectus and understand the risks before subscribing to the offer.
The regulator has also warned investors to be cautious of individuals or platforms promising guaranteed allocations or returns from the Dangote IPO.
The public offer is expected to give more Nigerians an opportunity to participate in the ownership of a major industrial company through the capital market.
However, owning the shares comes with market risks, meaning investors could benefit if the company and its share price perform well but could also lose money if the value of the shares declines.
