Nigeria’s crude oil production fell short by 46.4 million barrels between January and April 2025, raising red flags over the sustainability of the N55 trillion federal budget.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed the country produced 200.8 million barrels in the first four months of the year, far below the projected 247.2 million barrels, marking an 18.7% shortfall.
This production gap threatens the 2025 budget, which was based on a daily output of 2.06 million barrels and a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel. However, actual daily production averaged just 1.6 million barrels in the first quarter.“This is a significant concern,” a source at the commission noted.
“The budget projections simply aren’t aligning with production realities.”According to the NUPRC, Nigeria produced 1.737 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, dropping to 1.671 million bpd in February, 1.603 million bpd in March, and slightly recovering to 1.683 million bpd in April.
The resulting revenue loss is estimated at $3 billion, based on an average Brent crude price of $65 per barrel during the period.The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the federal government to re-evaluate its fiscal assumptions.
“The global oil environment has shifted,” the chamber warned. “We can’t afford to ignore these new realities.”The production slump is attributed to multiple factors, including oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, and aging infrastructure.
Despite efforts to reduce oil theft—which once cost the country 108,000 barrels per day in 2022—the issue remains a drag on output.Among oil terminals, Bonny’s output dropped from 8.1 million barrels in January to 7.4 million in April, Brass fell from 1 million to 747,000, and Qua Iboe slid from 4.6 million to 4.3 million.
Forcados was a rare bright spot, increasing from 8.8 million to 9.3 million barrels over the same period.While oil still makes up about 90% of Nigeria’s export earnings, the government has made strides in boosting non-oil revenues—rising from N6.8 trillion in 2023 to N12.4 trillion in 2024—and expanding the non-oil sector’s GDP contribution to 94.49%, driven by agriculture, services, and industry.
Still, the country’s economic outlook remains shaky. “Without stabilizing oil production, budget execution will continue to face headwinds,” one analyst noted.
