Despite the Trump administration’s bold energy ambitions, U.S. crude oil production is now projected to decline, signaling a tough road ahead for President Trump’s pro-oil agenda.
Earlier this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent introduced the “3-3-3” plan: a 3% GDP growth target, a cut in the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, and a 3 million barrels per day (bpd) boost in oil production. But energy experts are casting serious doubt on the feasibility of that last goal.
“Trump and Bessent will not be getting their wishes anytime soon,” wrote energy analyst Alex Kimani. “Several key indicators are now pointing to a decline in U.S. crude output, starting in Trump’s first year in office.”
According to Standard Chartered, U.S. oil production is expected to fall by 158,000 bpd in 2025 and another 183,000 bpd in 2026. The predicted downturn would end a four-year production growth streak under the Biden administration.
While March 2025 production hit a record 13.488 million bpd, growth has dramatically slowed. For context, output rose by 270,000 bpd in 2024 but has only inched up by 30,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2025.
Adding to the concern, Baker Hughes reports that the U.S. oil rig count has dropped by 50 year-over-year, continuing a 30-month decline. The number of frac spreads — key in shale completions — has also plummeted to 186, far below the 300 post-COVID high in 2022.
Even more telling is the drop in drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), which have halved since their June 2020 high and recently stabilized at 4,494. StanChart interprets this as a leading indicator of weakening well-completion activity.
Producers are feeling squeezed by more than just prices. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey earlier this year found that many shale drillers need WTI prices of at least $65 per barrel to break even. WTI was trading at $67.74 today, down 0.60%.
Goehring & Rozencwajg, a contrarian energy investment firm, point to deeper challenges: “The U.S. oil sector is currently facing ‘The Depletion Paradox,’ with even higher prices unable to overcome geological realities.”
Still, hope lingers. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods like CO₂ injection could offer a second wind to aging oilfields. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, next-gen CO₂-EOR could unlock as much as 60 billion barrels of oil — enough to sustain current production levels for more than a decade.
But for now, as Kimani concludes: “The early energy scorecards suggest that Trump and Bessent will not be getting their wishes anytime soon.”
