Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped to 1.453 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, falling below the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, according to OPEC’s monthly oil report released Monday.

The latest data shows a 33,000 bpd decline from the 1.486 million recorded in April, despite Nigeria’s approved production quota of 1.5 million bpd.

This comes amid concerns over Nigeria’s ambitious 2025 budget benchmark, which pegs daily oil production at over 2 million bpd — a target many analysts now say appears increasingly unrealistic.

“Crude oil production figures are based on direct communication with member countries,” the OPEC report stated. Nigeria is a long-standing member of the oil cartel.

Beyond oil output, the report also touched on Nigeria’s economic indicators, highlighting slight improvements in inflation. Headline inflation dropped to 23.7% in April, down from 24.2% in March. The group noted that food and core inflation also eased marginally.

However, OPEC cautioned that inflation remains a significant challenge.

“With rising fiscal challenges and a likely higher-than-targeted 2025 budget deficit, the central bank’s ability to sustain its strict anti-inflation stance will be tested,” the report said.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in its May 19–20 monetary policy meeting, maintained its policy rate at 27.5% and kept the cash reserve ratio at 50%, citing ongoing concerns about inflation and currency depreciation.

Despite these pressures, the report noted that businesses in Nigeria remain cautiously optimistic about the near-term economic outlook.