OPEC and its allies have approved a new increase in oil production, allowing eight member countries to add a total of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August. However, Nigeria was excluded from the group of beneficiaries due to its continued difficulties in meeting production targets.
The decision is part of OPEC+’s gradual reversal of previous output cuts that began in 2022. The latest addition brings the total amount of oil returned to the market since April to nearly 1.92 million barrels per day, leaving just 280,000 barrels remaining from the earlier 2.2 million bpd cut.
Countries permitted to boost production include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. These nations have already begun phasing out their cuts over the past few months. In addition, the UAE received approval to raise its quota by an extra 300,000 barrels daily.
Nigeria’s exclusion is tied to persistent underperformance in its oil sector. Despite government promises and incentives, the country’s crude oil output remains below expectations. In May 2025, Nigeria’s daily production hovered between 1.45 and 1.65 million barrels, still far from the 2.06 million bpd target set in the national budget.
Problems such as aging infrastructure, vandalism, oil theft, and insufficient investment continue to hamper Nigeria’s oil industry. Many pipelines and terminals are outdated and in poor condition, leading to frequent leaks and breakdowns.
Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, recently admitted he was surprised by the lack of progress, even with supportive policies from President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Meanwhile, analysts at Barclays have raised their Brent crude oil price forecasts—projecting $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 in 2026—citing stronger-than-expected demand and easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
Despite the latest production boost, experts warn that rising output could eventually exceed demand and push oil prices down in the second half of the year.
