Global energy leaders gathered in Vienna this week for the Opec International Seminar, projecting cautious confidence despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The event, held every two years, drew senior officials from national oil companies like Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, alongside top executives from global firms including Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies. Despite a tense global environment, the mood was notably calm, with Opec+ announcing a planned production boost of 548,000 barrels per day starting next month.

Market reaction to the news was limited, reflecting uncertainty around actual output—especially from the group’s leading producers, often referred to as the “V8” members.

Independent oil firms struck an optimistic tone. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné highlighted a slowdown in China’s oil demand growth but noted that India’s increasing consumption was helping balance the market. Overall, global demand is still climbing by around 0.8% to 1% annually.

UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei defended Opec+’s output policy, stressing the group’s deep understanding of market dynamics. He also pointed out that countries outside the alliance have benefited from Opec+’s production restraint. Meanwhile, Crescent Petroleum’s Majid Jafar expressed confidence in market stability, even in the wake of tensions between Iran and Israel, and welcomed improved relations between the UAE and the U.S.

Despite analyst concerns over why oil prices haven’t dropped more sharply, many in the industry believe tight supply conditions will persist through the end of the year. Still, there are risks ahead, particularly potential policy shifts in the U.S., such as new trade tariffs, which could slow global growth.