Nigeria may not earn as much from the rest of the world this year as it did in 2024. Experts say the country’s current account surplus — the extra money Nigeria makes from exports, remittances, and foreign investments — could fall by over 30%, dropping from $17.2 billion last year to around $11.8 billion in 2025.

Why the drop?

First, oil production has gone down. From January to May, Nigeria’s oil output reduced from 1.74 million barrels per day to 1.66 million. On top of that, global oil prices also fell from nearly $80 per barrel to about $67. Since oil is Nigeria’s biggest source of foreign income, this has affected overall earnings.

Another reason is that remittances — money sent home by Nigerians living abroad — might reduce this year. With the economies of countries like the U.S., U.K., and Canada slowing down, people may send less money back home.

According to Afrinvest, these two factors — weak oil performance and softer remittances — are the main reasons for the drop. Remittances alone brought in about $5.3 billion last year, so any slowdown will be felt.

Data from the Central Bank shows that Nigeria made $3.7 billion in the first three months of 2025 from its current account — a small increase from last year, but lower than the last quarter of 2024.

Still, not all the news is bad.

Some experts believe other exports (outside oil) and strong interest in Nigeria’s stock market could help balance the situation. Foreign investors are coming in, and companies are beginning to buy more locally made goods instead of importing — which helps reduce spending in dollars.

There’s also hope that once the Dangote Refinery starts exporting refined products in full, Nigeria’s earnings from exports will increase again.

In the end, analysts expect Nigeria’s current account to stay in surplus this year, but lower than before — around 8% of the country’s GDP, compared to 9.2% in 2024.