OPEC has increased its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, expecting the world to use 1.38 million more barrels per day—100,000 barrels more than previously predicted. At the same time, OPEC has reduced its estimate for how much oil producers outside its group, including the U.S., will add to supply next year.

This means the oil market could be tighter, making it easier for OPEC and its allies to raise their production and win back market share after cutting output for several years to support prices.

OPEC also slightly raised its outlook for global economic growth in 2025, noting strong performances from big economies like India, China, and Brazil, despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical issues.

A big change in the report is the expected drop in U.S. shale oil production in 2026 by about 100,000 barrels per day, a shift from earlier predictions that output would stay steady. Lower oil prices and tighter spending have made shale producers more cautious.

Overall, oil supplies from non-OPEC producers are now expected to grow by about 630,000 barrels per day next year, down from the earlier forecast of 730,000 barrels. The U.S. will still be a key supplier but with a smaller increase than first thought.

In July, OPEC+ raised its crude production by 335,000 barrels per day, a bit less than their planned increase.

The International Energy Agency is due to publish its own oil market forecast soon, which will add more details on global supply and demand.