Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol in October to prevent a nationwide fuel shortage, after domestic production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was insufficient to meet national demand, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The regulator’s report shows that the refinery supplied 512.4 million litres of petrol in October—an average of 17.1 million litres per day—far below the roughly 1.5 billion litres required for the month. To fill the gap, fuel marketers imported 828 million litres, averaging 27.6 million litres daily.
National petrol consumption rose to 56.74 million litres per day, indicating that demand continues to outpace domestic supply despite efforts to increase local production.
Dangote Refinery Output Below Target
Since beginning operations in September 2024, the Dangote Refinery has yet to reach its projected capacity. Between October 2024 and October 2025, the facility averaged 18.03 million litres per day, barely half of its planned target of 35 million litres daily. Output peaked at 25 million litres per day in February 2025 before dropping and stabilizing at 17.1 million litres per day by September and October 2025.
Import Duty Plan Suspended
The heavy reliance on imports came shortly after the government proposed a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel to protect local refineries. The plan was suspended after industry operators expressed concerns that domestic supply could not meet demand. The latest figures reinforce these concerns.
Industry Reactions
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) said the numbers confirm that Nigeria is still far from achieving petrol self-sufficiency. The association expressed support for Dangote Refinery but emphasized that other parts of the downstream sector must also expand to close the supply gap. PETROAN warned that petrol prices would likely have risen sharply if the import duty had been implemented given current production levels.
Fuel Sufficiency Declines
The country’s petrol sufficiency—how long national stock can last—fell to nine days in October, down from an average of 20 days at the end of 2024. Diesel and aviation fuel remained at higher levels, with 38 days and 35 days, respectively. The reduced petrol buffer increases the risk of supply disruptions in the event of import delays, port congestion, or foreign exchange challenges.
