Nigeria is expected to emerge as China’s top crude oil supplier following a sharp decline in Venezuelan shipments caused by U.S. sanctions and a month-long blockade.

Analysts say China’s imports of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil could fall to just 166,000 barrels per day in February, down from an average of 642,000 barrels per day in 2025. Many Venezuela-bound tankers have been blocked or seized by U.S. forces since mid-December, leaving China with limited alternative sources.

Nigeria, which already exports significant amounts of crude oil and natural gas to China, offers a more reliable supply despite challenges such as occasional production disruptions. Mineral fuels account for nearly 90% of Nigeria’s exports to China, with crude and gas alone valued at $1.41 billion in 2023.

Chinese firms, including CNOOC, have major investments in Nigeria’s oil sector, particularly in offshore development. The partnership is further strengthened by potential trade incentives, such as zero-tariff access for Nigerian goods.

Meanwhile, U.S.-backed trading companies like Trafigura and Vitol are facilitating limited sales of Venezuelan crude to Asia for March delivery, but volumes remain restricted due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

With Venezuelan supplies constrained, Nigeria’s role as a reliable crude supplier to China is expected to grow significantly in the coming months, marking a major opportunity for the country’s oil industry.