Femi Otedola, chairman of First HoldCo, has said Nigeria’s currency could strengthen significantly before the end of the year as local fuel production expands, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Otedola said the full operation of the Dangote refinery marks a major shift for Nigeria after decades of relying heavily on imported petroleum products. According to him, increased domestic refining will reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market and help the naira appreciate.

The refinery recently confirmed that it is now operating at its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. The company said this followed the successful completion of scheduled maintenance and the optimisation of its crude distillation unit and petrol production facilities.

Reacting to the development, Otedola said the return to full capacity means Nigeria will spend less foreign exchange on fuel imports, easing demand for dollars and supporting a stronger naira. He expressed optimism that, if current trends continue, the naira could trade below ₦1,000 to the dollar before the end of the year.

He also congratulated Aliko Dangote on the milestone, describing the refinery’s progress as a major achievement for both Nigeria and Africa. Otedola noted that the facility’s ability to supply large volumes of petrol daily is changing the country’s energy outlook and conserving scarce foreign exchange.

Beyond the current capacity, Otedola revealed that Dangote has begun work on a major expansion project valued at about $12 billion. The planned expansion is expected to raise refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day and include additional petrochemical plants for products such as polypropylene and detergent-related inputs.

According to him, work on the expansion is already underway, adding that the continued growth of domestic refining capacity could play a key role in stabilising the economy and strengthening the naira in the months ahead.