Nigeria failed to meet its crude oil production target set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for much of 2025, with official data showing that output remained below the country’s quota in nine out of the 12 months.
Figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicate that crude oil production declined slightly in December 2025, slipping to about 1.42 million barrels per day from 1.44 million barrels per day recorded in November. The December output represented roughly 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC allocation of 1.5 million barrels per day.
An analysis of monthly production levels shows that Nigeria only met or marginally exceeded its OPEC quota in January, June and July. In January, crude oil output averaged 1.54 million barrels per day, placing production above the country’s allocation at the start of the year.
However, output fell below the target from February, when production dropped to about 1.47 million barrels per day, and weakened further in March to roughly 1.40 million barrels per day. Although there was some recovery in April and May, production remained under the OPEC ceiling until mid-year.
Nigeria briefly regained momentum in June and July, producing around 1.51 million barrels per day in both months, before slipping again in the second half of the year. Production levels declined steadily in the third quarter, falling to approximately 1.43 million barrels per day in August and reaching a low of about 1.39 million barrels per day in September.
The trend continued into the final quarter of the year, with output averaging 1.40 million barrels per day in October, rising modestly in November, and then easing again in December.
Data on total liquids production, which includes crude oil and condensates, also showed a gradual decline toward the end of the year. While combined output exceeded 1.7 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, it fell below 1.6 million barrels per day by September and closed the year at around 1.54 million barrels per day in December.
The NUPRC said average daily production in December stood at about 1.54 million barrels per day, comprising roughly 1.42 million barrels of crude oil and 122,000 barrels of condensate. According to the commission, this level of crude production accounted for 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
Despite the underperformance, the commission’s newly appointed Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has expressed confidence that production levels will improve. She outlined a strategy focused on recovering shut-in volumes, slowing natural decline in oil fields, reducing losses, and speeding up the time required to bring new oil projects on stream.
Eyesan said the commission’s approach aligns with the Federal Government’s long-term targets to raise crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030. She added that the NUPRC intends to pursue these goals by improving operational efficiency and regulatory certainty without increasing costs or imposing additional burdens on operators.
