Kazakhstan is doubling down on its refusal to rein in oil production, even hinting at increased output later this year, just days before a crucial OPEC+ meeting that could reshape global supply dynamics.

Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Thursday that Kazakhstan is unable to enforce output cuts, citing limits on controlling international consortiums and aging state-run fields.

“The republic has no right to enforce production cuts” on fields operated by foreign partners, Akkenzhenov told reporters in Astana. “Nor can it practically cut output” at older fields owned by KazMunayGas, the state-run oil giant.

The government has formally informed OPEC+ of its position, Interfax reported, escalating tensions with the oil cartel ahead of its Saturday meeting.Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov confirmed that another output hike is on the horizon, saying:

“There will be a hike, but whether it will be 400, 500, 600, we don’t know — that will be announced on Saturday.”OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has raised eyebrows in recent months with back-to-back production hikes totaling 411,000 barrels per day in May and June — triple what was originally planned. Some delegates say these moves were meant to punish quota violators like Kazakhstan and Iraq.

But with Astana holding its ground, that strategy may be losing traction.“This is an ongoing conversation between countries,” said Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects Ltd. “Ultimately there will have to be a solution to this compliance problem,” potentially disguised as field maintenance in the near future.

While speculation lingers about Kazakhstan possibly exiting OPEC+, Sen described that as a “tricky question,” though not the most probable outcome.

Kazakhstan’s stance underscores a deeper challenge within OPEC+: how to enforce unity in an alliance increasingly divided by national interests.