Energy analysts are casting doubt on the European Union’s ambitious pledge to purchase up to $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over the next three years, calling the figure overly optimistic and unlikely to be met under current market conditions.
The commitment, made as part of a broader U.S.-EU trade agreement, covers LNG, crude oil, and nuclear technology. However, a recent update from Rystad Energy, shared with Rigzone, suggests that the scale of the target doesn’t align with practical market realities.
According to Masanori Odaka, Vice President of Gas & LNG Research at Rystad, the volume of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) being imported by the EU would need to grow significantly—and maintain historically high prices—for the $250 billion annual benchmark to be achievable. In 2024, the EU imported nearly 38 million tons of U.S. LNG. So far in 2025, that share has grown to over 55%, or about 35.6 million tons. Yet, even at this pace, the total value of imports is projected to fall far short of the pledge, especially with global LNG prices expected to decline as supply expands.
Rystad estimates that if the EU’s current import trend continues and prices average around $11 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the total U.S. LNG value for 2025 would be between $28 billion and $34 billion—just a fraction of the yearly target.
The outlook for other U.S. energy exports like oil and refined products isn’t much more promising. Capacity limits at refineries and differences in product standards are expected to restrict how much more Europe can import. Additionally, coal and nuclear fuel imports from the U.S. remain minimal in the EU’s overall energy mix.
Despite skepticism, political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have defended the deal. The White House praised the agreement as a transformative moment for transatlantic economic relations, stating it would strengthen U.S. industry, jobs, and national security. A fact sheet published by the U.S. government claimed the EU would invest $600 billion more in the U.S. by 2028, alongside the $750 billion energy commitment.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the deal as a stabilizing force in volatile times, highlighting its importance for energy security and diversification.
Still, market observers remain cautious. “The market will be watching closely to see how this deal is implemented,” Odaka noted.
The European Commission declined to comment on Rystad’s analysis, while the White House had yet to respond at the time of reporting.
