The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, have agreed to a moderate oil production increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in November. The decision, reached during an online meeting on Sunday, signals a cautious approach to expanding supply without putting downward pressure on prices.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria are the eight countries participating in this latest adjustment. The group said the move reflects strong market fundamentals and steady global economic conditions.

Analysts had anticipated a much larger boost—up to 500,000 barrels per day—but OPEC+ opted for restraint to prevent market volatility. “The alliance is walking a fine line between keeping prices stable and reclaiming market share in an oversupplied environment,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy.

Since early 2025, the alliance has already increased output by over 2.5 million barrels daily, marking a shift from its earlier policy of limiting production to support prices. The bloc is now focused on competing with non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.

Oil demand growth remains sluggish. The International Energy Agency expects demand to rise by only 700,000 barrels per day between 2025 and 2026, while OPEC forecasts a stronger increase of up to 1.4 million barrels per day.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded below $65 per barrel on Friday, falling roughly 8% in one week amid concerns about higher output.

For Russia, the increase is manageable despite ongoing Western sanctions and the impact of Ukraine’s attacks on its refineries. The damage has pushed Moscow to export more crude, deepening its reliance on international buyers.