The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the price of petrol could hover around N950 per litre in 2026, according to its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook.

The bank’s forecast is based on assumptions including an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel for 2026 and an exchange rate of N1,400 per US dollar. Domestic crude oil production is expected to remain steady at about 1.5 million barrels per day.

The CBN noted that government spending will follow the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, supporting initiatives aimed at boosting the economy toward a $1 trillion target. Monetary policy rates are assumed to remain at 27% for the MPR and 45% for the CRR, while business optimism and investor confidence are expected to improve further.

Before the Dangote Refinery began operations, petrol prices often exceeded N900 per litre. In December 2025, the refinery temporarily reduced its pump price to N739 through MRS Oil, prompting other stations to lower prices to stay competitive. The refinery has consistently sold petrol below market rates, absorbing losses to stabilize the market.

The Dangote Refinery recently warned that, without domestic refining, petrol prices could reach as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria relied entirely on imports. The refinery described its operations as a key stabilizing factor in the fuel market.

Looking ahead, the CBN expects competition among fuel marketers to gradually ease pump prices, while headline inflation could decline to 12.94% in 2026 from 21.26% in 2025. Global commodity prices are also projected to fall, with energy prices expected to drop nearly 7% due to lower oil prices and improved supply conditions.

The bank highlighted that increased domestic refining and investments in oil infrastructure are likely to further strengthen growth prospects for Nigeria in 2026.