The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is weighing plans to export its refined petroleum products as tensions grow over the continued issuance of fuel import licences in Nigeria.

Sources familiar with the matter said the move is being considered due to concerns that ongoing import approvals could undermine domestic refining efforts. According to a senior official, exporting petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel may become the refinery’s preferred option if the current situation persists.

The development comes despite repeated assurances from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority that no new import licences have been issued in 2026. The regulator maintains that products currently entering the country are tied to permits granted in the final quarter of 2025.

The disagreement highlights a broader debate within Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector over how to balance local refining capacity with imports. While the refinery has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on foreign fuel, some stakeholders argue that limited imports are still necessary to meet national demand.

At the same time, rising global supply disruptions driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for alternative fuel sources. Several African countries, including South Africa, are reportedly seeking supply arrangements with the Dangote refinery to stabilise their domestic markets.

Industry analysts warn that if the refinery proceeds with exporting a large share of its output, Nigeria could face tighter fuel supply, potentially leading to price increases and distribution challenges.

Despite these concerns, regulators insist that domestic refining now accounts for the bulk of the country’s fuel supply and that efforts are ongoing to sustain progress toward energy self-sufficiency.