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IEA: Iran Oil Recovery May Take 2 Years as Crude Falls After Lebanon Ceasefire

Global crude oil prices eased on Thursday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of cooling following a Lebanon ceasefire and reports of potential Iran peace talks.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $93.42 per barrel, while Brent crude fell to $98.15. Murban crude moved in the opposite direction, rising to $101.70, and natural gas edged up to $2.664.

The price decline came as traders reduced the risk premium built into oil markets amid expectations that supply disruptions from the region could ease if diplomatic progress continues.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the damage caused by the Iran war could take up to two years to fully repair. It said oil fields, refineries, and pipelines across the Persian Gulf have been heavily affected, with the Strait of Hormuz also significantly disrupted.

The agency stressed that even if shipping routes reopen, production will not immediately return to previous levels because damaged infrastructure must first be restored and operations restarted.

The IEA estimates that millions of barrels per day have already been removed from global supply, with more than 80 oil and gas facilities reportedly damaged. It also warned that some natural gas infrastructure may take even longer than two years to recover.

Despite the short-term price drop, analysts say the oil market remains volatile as it reacts to both easing political tensions and ongoing supply constraints in key producing regions.