Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in January and February 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery says it is struggling to secure enough local crude to run at full capacity.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that 31.31 million barrels were exported in January and 24.08 million barrels in February. Average production stood at 1.46 million barrels per day in January and fell to 1.31 million barrels per day in February. Exports averaged 1.01 mbpd and 0.86 mbpd respectively.
Out of a total production of 81.94 million barrels during the two months, only about 26.55 million barrels were left for local refining.
This comes as the 650,000-barrel-per-day Lekki refinery reports that it has been receiving far less crude than required under the naira-for-crude arrangement. Sources within the refinery say the plant needs about 19.77 million barrels monthly to operate at full capacity.
However, deliveries between October 2025 and mid-March 2026 were far below this requirement. The refinery received 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February. Between March 1 and 15, only 3.6 million barrels were supplied.
In total, about 29.21 million barrels were delivered over five and a half months, compared to an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels, representing a supply performance of roughly 27 percent.
Officials at the refinery argue that the Petroleum Industry Act prioritises local refining before exports and question why large volumes continue to leave the country while domestic refineries face shortages.
The supply challenge has affected fuel pricing. Amid global oil market tensions linked to the Iran-US conflict, the refinery raised petrol prices above N1,300 per litre before adjusting to around N1,250 per litre. The company said the increases were driven by the high cost of importing crude after failing to secure enough local supply.
The refinery also stated that it receives about five cargoes monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited instead of the 13 cargoes it requires, and that even these are priced at international market rates despite being paid for in naira.
In response, sources at NNPC said the company is leveraging its global trading network to source third-party crude for the refinery at competitive prices. They added that some of NNPC’s crude volumes had been committed in previous forward sales, contributing to the current shortfall, but stressed that efforts are ongoing to improve supply.
In March, the refinery reportedly received 10 cargoes from NNPC, an improvement from previous months but still below its operational needs.
Industry stakeholders, including refiners’ representatives, have called for consistent crude supply to local refineries, noting that steady access to feedstock is essential for profitability, energy security, and reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
