The Federal Government has restated that Nigeria will continue to support the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its broader cooperation framework, despite growing uncertainty over the planned withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates and its possible effects on global oil stability.
Officials in Abuja said the country still views coordinated production efforts under OPEC and its allied structure as essential for maintaining balance in the international crude market. According to them, the arrangement helps to reduce price swings and provides a more predictable environment for both producers and consumers.
They explained that Nigeria remains committed to agreed production targets but will continue to factor in its domestic economic needs as discussions within the group progress.
The comments come as attention shifts to the reported exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC, a development expected to take a significant volume of oil output outside the cartel’s coordinated system. Energy analysts estimate that the UAE accounts for a notable share of total production, making its departure potentially impactful for supply management.
Some experts have warned that the move could weaken OPEC’s influence on global pricing, increasing uncertainty in the oil market. They argue that reduced coordination among major producers may lead to less control over output levels and more price volatility.
Energy economist Wumi Iledare said the situation highlights growing tension within the alliance, as some members expand production capacity while still operating under agreed limits. He noted that this could gradually affect compliance and weaken collective discipline over time.
He added that Nigeria could face both lower oil prices in a less coordinated market and continued internal challenges such as production inefficiencies and high operating costs, which may limit revenue gains even when prices are favourable.
Another analyst, Muda Yusuf, also cautioned that the UAE’s exit could reduce OPEC’s ability to influence global oil prices. He explained that while Nigeria might benefit from higher production quotas, weaker pricing could offset any potential increase in earnings.
Yusuf urged the government to prioritise boosting crude output, cutting production costs, and reducing dependence on oil exports by expanding other sectors of the economy.
Established in 1960, OPEC has historically played a major role in stabilising global oil markets through coordinated supply adjustments. However, shifting national interests and changing energy dynamics have increasingly tested unity within the group.
Despite these concerns, Nigerian officials maintain that continued participation in the organisation remains important for protecting national interests and supporting stability in the global energy market.
