Global oil markets are heading into a high-pressure phase, with warnings that prices could move into a “red zone” by July or August if supply conditions do not improve, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA says crude inventories are falling quickly while demand is rising into the peak summer travel season. This combination is tightening the market and reducing the buffer that usually helps absorb shocks.

Officials also point to weaker supply additions from key producing regions, especially in the Middle East, at a time when global consumption is strengthening. The result is a faster drawdown of stockpiles, leaving markets more exposed to disruptions.

The agency warned that if current trends continue, oil markets could become significantly tighter in the coming months, increasing price volatility during the summer period.