Since the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline in May 2024, China has become the leading buyer of Canadian crude oil shipped through the system, marking a significant shift in global oil flows influenced by U.S. trade tensions.

Originally, U.S. refiners along the West Coast were expected to be the main recipients of the Canadian crude.

However, data shows that Canada has been shipping an average of 207,000 barrels per day to China since full operation, compared to 173,000 barrels per day to the U.S.Philippe Rheault, director of the China Institute at the University of Alberta, explained the shift: “Trump’s protectionist policies have in recent months made Canada more attractive to Chinese buyers.”

He also noted China’s cautious approach to over-relying on Russian oil supplies: “A lot of China’s refineries are also mindful of U.S. sanctions, and so have been trying to diversify away from oil from Venezuela and other places.”

The Trans Mountain pipeline, Canada’s only east-west crude route, tripled its capacity to 890,000 barrels per day with the recent expansion, enabling broader access to Pacific markets. Despite initial expectations that U.S.

West Coast buyers would dominate, China’s strategic moves amid the U.S.-China trade war have reshaped the market.Skip York, chief energy strategist with Turner, Mason & Company, said, “I think you’re going to see virtually all of those incremental vessels flow west” towards Asian markets like China.

As Canada continues to diversify its crude exports beyond the U.S., the Trans Mountain pipeline is poised to further increase its capacity, likely benefiting Asian buyers in the years ahead.