Refinery profits across major global markets have surged to levels last seen two years ago, as tightening supplies of diesel and gasoline drive up margins despite an oversupplied crude oil market.

Refiners in the United States, Europe, and Asia are benefiting from strong product demand at a time when several disruptions are limiting how much fuel can be produced. Recent refinery closures, seasonal maintenance, unexpected equipment failures, and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining facilities have all reduced global processing capacity.

The situation is particularly tight in Europe, where buyers are preparing for a major change early next year when the EU will begin enforcing a ban on fuels made from Russian crude. Analysts say this shift is already putting upward pressure on diesel prices as traders scramble for alternative supply.

Sanctions against Russia’s major fuel producers, along with reduced refinery runs in the U.S., are adding to the strain. American processing rates have fallen sharply from summer highs, further tightening diesel availability across the Atlantic Basin.

The International Energy Agency reports that global refinery activity fell significantly in October but is expected to rebound as operators rush to take advantage of higher margins, especially with heating demand increasing ahead of winter.

Industry experts say the strong performance of the refined products market is softening concerns about weak crude prices. With stocks of diesel and other middle-distillates depleted in several regions, analysts expect margins to remain strong in the near term as refiners push to maximise output.