Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol remained high in 2025, with foreign-sourced fuel accounting for nearly two-thirds of the country’s Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption, even as domestic refineries, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, steadily increased output.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that total petrol consumption last year reached approximately 18.97 billion litres. Of this, imports supplied 11.85 billion litres, representing 62.47% of total consumption, while domestic refineries contributed 7.54 billion litres, or 37.53%.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest single-site refinery, began commercial operations in late 2024 and ramped up output in 2025, supplying between 17 million and 32 million litres of petrol daily. Despite this, imports continued to dominate the market due to logistical constraints, fluctuating demand, and the gradual scale-up of domestic refining capacity.
Monthly consumption patterns highlighted the dominance of imports. In November, for example, petrol imports reached 1.56 billion litres, covering nearly all domestic demand, while domestic refineries supplied 585 million litres. December saw domestic production hit its highest level of the year at 992 million litres, narrowing the gap with imports, which still supplied 1.31 billion litres.
Officials and industry stakeholders have emphasized the refinery’s capacity to meet Nigeria’s needs. Aliko Dangote, chairman of Dangote Group, confirmed that the refinery maintains significant product reserves and daily production sufficient for domestic demand. Some petroleum marketers also reported sourcing almost all their petrol directly from Dangote during peak periods.
However, energy experts warn that import dependence has not ended. Professor Wumi Iledare noted that Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates under an import-parity framework, where the possibility of imports continues to influence pricing, supply stability, and risk management. Even with high domestic production, imports remain a critical tool to manage stock shortages, demand surges, and logistical disruptions.
“The correct policy framing is reduced import dependence, not import elimination,” Iledare said. “Precision in language matters because credibility in energy policy is built on economic fundamentals, not celebratory headlines.”
Similarly, Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of petroleumprice.ng, highlighted that domestic refining capacity has grown from less than 5% in 2022 to around 40% in 2025, marking progress but not complete self-sufficiency.
Looking ahead, the Federal Government plans to introduce a 15% import tariff on petrol in early 2026, a move expected to boost the role of domestic refineries in meeting national demand. Analysts say that with continued expansion of local refining and strategic import management, Nigeria could gradually reduce reliance on foreign fuel while improving energy security.
