With tensions boiling in the Middle East following Israel’s dramatic strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, India is rapidly adjusting its oil sourcing strategy—ramping up crude imports from Russia and the United States to avoid potential supply shocks.
According to preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler, Indian refiners are set to import 2–2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June. This marks the highest level in two years and exceeds the combined imports from key Middle Eastern suppliers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
“India’s June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler. “If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief.”
Imports from the US have also jumped sharply—rising to 439,000 bpd in June from 280,000 bpd in May. In contrast, shipments from the Middle East are projected to drop to around 2 million bpd.
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, imports about 5.1 million bpd of crude. While traditionally dependent on Middle Eastern oil, the country began shifting to discounted Russian crude after the Ukraine invasion in 2022. Russian oil now makes up an estimated 40–44% of India’s total imports.
The recent escalation in Iran-Israel tensions has sparked fears over the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG shipments. Roughly 40% of India’s oil and 50% of its gas imports pass through this narrow waterway.
“While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days,” said Ritolia. “Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers into the Gulf.”
The number of such vessels has dropped from 69 to just 40, with signals from the Gulf of Oman halving. This decline in tanker traffic hints at potential supply tightening in the short term.
Despite Iran’s threats to shut the Strait, Kpler assigns a “very low probability” to a full blockade. “Iran would risk its own oil exports and diplomatic ties, particularly with China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE,” said Ritolia. “Any aggressive move could invite swift military retaliation.”
India’s diversified approach—importing from West Africa, Latin America, and the US—underscores its strategy to shield itself from geopolitical shocks. Officials also say India can tap into strategic oil reserves that cover 9–10 days of imports if needed.
As the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, India appears well-positioned to adapt, leveraging flexible refinery capabilities and a growing pool of suppliers beyond the Gulf.
