Nigeria’s economic outlook faces fresh pressure as crude oil prices dropped below the government’s benchmark, selling at under $65 per barrel.

The decline follows OPEC+’s surprise move to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June—despite waning global demand and bearish market sentiment.

The price drop threatens Nigeria’s revenue projections and the stability of the naira. Nigerian cargoes scheduled for May 10 remain unsold, signaling weak interest from international buyers.

Market analysts attribute the slump to “flat differentials driven by a backwardated market structure and elevated freight costs.”OPEC+ defended its production hike, stating: “The fundamentals of the oil market are healthy, and inventories are low.”

Yet, not all members are aligned. Kazakhstan’s energy minister openly declared the country would “prioritize national interests” over compliance with OPEC+ quotas.

Brent crude also fell, dipping below $62 per barrel, while Saudi Arabia continues to push for deeper cuts to ensure other members like Iraq and Kazakhstan meet targets.

Analysts warn that geopolitical shifts—including U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine talks—pose further risks to oil market stability.President Trump’s expected visit to Saudi Arabia later this month and his renewed pressure on OPEC+ to increase output are adding to the volatility.

A full OPEC ministerial meeting is slated for May 28 to assess the market further.Despite efforts to stabilize the sector, Nigerian crude continues to struggle.

As one market source noted: “The willingness of OPEC+ to add supply without clear demand is shaking confidence.”