Saudi Arabia is expected to lower the prices of its crude oil exports to Asia again in February, as global oil supply remains ample and key Middle East benchmarks continue to weaken.

A Reuters survey of Asian refiners indicates that the kingdom may reduce the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude by between 10 and 30 cents per barrel for February loadings. If confirmed, the move would bring the premium of Arab Light over the Oman/Dubai benchmark down to about 30–50 cents per barrel, the lowest level in more than five years.

The anticipated adjustment would mark the third consecutive month of price cuts by Saudi Arabia, reflecting softer market conditions and reduced pricing power. Other Saudi crude grades are also expected to see smaller changes. Arab Extra Light may be reduced by up to 20 cents per barrel, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades are likely to remain unchanged or decline slightly.

Market participants point to a well-supplied oil market as a key reason behind the expected cuts. Spot benchmarks in the Middle East have fallen since early November, while higher output from OPEC+ producers in 2025 has added to global supply.
Although OPEC+ recently agreed to maintain its pause on further production increases in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices have remained under pressure due to oversupply concerns and weaker demand signals.

Saudi Arabia usually announces its official crude prices around the fifth day of each month. As the world’s largest crude exporter, its pricing decisions often set the tone for other Middle Eastern producers and influence the pricing of around nine million barrels per day of oil exports from the Gulf region