Petrol prices in Nigeria could fall significantly to around ₦900 per litre if ongoing diplomatic efforts between the and lead to a lasting peace agreement and global oil prices continue their downward trend, according to industry operators.
Oil market analysts say crude prices have already begun easing in response to reduced tensions in the Middle East. Benchmark crude, which previously climbed above $120 per barrel during the height of geopolitical conflict, has now dropped to about $87 per barrel as expectations grow that shipping routes in the could fully reopen.
The easing of supply fears has strengthened expectations of improved global crude flow, a key factor that often influences fuel pricing across importing countries like Nigeria.
During the earlier phase of the crisis, Nigeria saw a sharp rise in pump prices, with petrol climbing from about ₦830 per litre to as high as ₦1,300. The increase also affected diesel and aviation fuel, putting pressure on transport costs and airline operations.
With crude prices now softening, attention has shifted to how local refiners and marketers may respond. The is expected to review its ex-depot prices in line with global trends, although operators note that the refinery is still processing crude bought at higher costs, which may slow immediate price reductions.
Despite this, a source within the sector indicated that sustained crude price stability could eventually push petrol prices lower, depending on how quickly high-cost inventories are cleared.
The has also projected a possible drop in fuel prices if the geopolitical situation continues to improve. The group believes that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could strengthen the case for petrol prices falling below ₦1,000 per litre, with ₦900 considered possible under favourable conditions.
Adding to market expectations, former U.S. President has stated that a peace agreement with Iran is expected to be signed soon, after which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to global shipping. His comments have contributed to speculation in energy markets.
While uncertainty remains over the timing and full impact of any agreement, operators say Nigeria could see another round of fuel price adjustments if crude oil continues to ease and global supply conditions improve.
