Dangote Petroleum Refinery has identified the possible return of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries and the development of new refining plants across Africa as factors that could increase competition in its target markets.
The disclosure was made in the refinery’s prospectus for its N2.15tn initial public offering on the Nigerian Exchange.
The company said the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries operated by NNPC could become competitors if ongoing efforts to rehabilitate them result in sustained commercial operations.
Dangote Refinery currently accounts for about 58 per cent of Nigeria’s installed refining capacity and an estimated 90 per cent or more of the country’s operational refining capacity as of June 30, 2026.
However, the company noted that its strong position could be affected if additional refining capacity comes on stream.
An increase in the supply of refined petroleum products, according to the prospectus, could put pressure on Dangote Refinery’s market share, product prices and refining margins.
The company said these developments could affect its revenue, financial position and future business prospects, particularly if new or rehabilitated refineries begin supplying the same markets.
The three NNPC refineries have faced years of operational challenges despite several rehabilitation programmes. NNPC had earlier undertaken reviews of the facilities to assess their technical and commercial viability.
Competition is not limited to Nigeria. Dangote Refinery also pointed to the wider African market, where about 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity is installed.
New and planned refineries on the continent could increase the volume of petroleum products available to African consumers and markets targeted by Dangote Refinery.
The company also highlighted large export-focused refineries in the Middle East and Asia as competitors, particularly because a significant share of its products is expected to be sold outside Nigeria.
This means the refinery would have to compete on price and refining margins not only within Nigeria but also in international markets.
The disclosure comes as Dangote Refinery moves ahead with its N2.15tn public offer, which involves 4.1 billion shares priced at N525 each.
The IPO opened on September 14 and is scheduled to close on October 13, with the refinery expected to list on the NGX in November.
The company has also outlined expansion plans beyond Nigeria, including a proposed refinery project in Kenya, as part of its broader strategy to increase its presence in the African refining market.
Dangote Refinery was commissioned in 2023 and has since become a major supplier of refined petroleum products to Nigeria.
Despite its current dominance in the domestic market, the company’s prospectus indicates that changes in refining capacity in Nigeria, Africa and other producing regions could shape its future market position.
