Kazakhstan is on track to surpass its 2025 oil production target, once again challenging OPEC+ efforts to limit global crude supply.

Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov confirmed Friday that the country’s output will likely top the planned 96.2 million tons for the year—equivalent to around 2 million barrels per day (bpd)—thanks to a major boost from the Chevron-led Tengiz field expansion.

“Due to the increased production at the giant Tengiz field, we will probably finish the year higher than the planned production level,” Akkenzhenov told Russian news agency TASS.

In early 2025, the Tengiz project added an additional 260,000 bpd, pushing national production well above the OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million bpd.

However, condensate—exempt from the OPEC+ agreement—continues to be a loophole for Kazakhstan’s rising output.The move has raised tensions within the alliance, especially with core members like Saudi Arabia sticking to their production limits.

Despite promises to compensate with a 1.3 million-barrel cut by 2026, enforcement remains elusive.Chevron, which operates Kazakhstan’s largest fields, appears unconcerned. “On OPEC Plus in Kazakhstan, you know, really we’re not discussions of that.

We don’t engage in discussions about OPEC or OPEC Plus,” said CEO Mike Wirth during a recent earnings call.Kazakhstan, along with Iraq and Russia, remains one of the top overproducers in the OPEC+ group.

With Western majors holding significant sway in the country’s oil sector, real compliance seems unlikely in the short term.