Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, global crude oil prices climbed to $74 per barrel, prompting a sharp increase in local petrol prices by 10 Nigerian marketers.
According to industry data, marketers such as Aiteo, Dangote, Pinnacle, and Emadeb raised their depot prices, with adjustments ranging between 0.46% and 2.18%. Emadeb recorded the steepest jump, raising its price from N827 to N845 per litre, while Ever made the smallest move, adjusting from N866 to N870.
The surge in global oil prices, up from $68 to $74 per barrel (an 8.8% jump), is largely attributed to fears that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz—through which over 20% of global oil and gas is shipped—further tightening global supply.
“The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran has added a troubling dimension to the challenges of an already floundering global economy,” said Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). “Crude oil prices surged by 15% in days. This has obvious implications for petroleum product prices globally.”
Yusuf warned that energy costs could trigger inflation across sectors: “It impacts production, logistics, transportation, and power. These additional costs would be passed on to final consumers. We are looking at imported inflation, interest rate hikes, and tighter credit conditions.”
JP Morgan has projected crude prices could skyrocket to between $120 and $130 per barrel if the conflict worsens or the Strait is shut.
Professor Wumi Iledare, a top petroleum economist, said Nigeria could benefit from the rally—if properly managed. “High prices offer a potential windfall for forex earnings and budget support. But without fiscal discipline and refining capacity, it may just be temporary relief.”
Yet experts warn gains may be undermined by debt obligations. “We’ve used a lot of our crude to obtain loans,” said Olufemi Idowu of Kreston Pedabo. “So, while oil revenue might increase, the actual benefits may be limited.”
He added: “Dangote Refinery still buys crude at international rates. With no subsidy, the pump price will rise. So while government revenue improves, consumers may face higher fuel costs.”
Mazi Colman Obasi, President of OGSPAN, echoed similar views, noting, “The tension could be beneficial to Nigeria and other exporters, as prices would likely stay above $75—the benchmark in Nigeria’s 2025 budget.”
As crude oil markets react to the conflict, Nigerian consumers brace for rising costs, while government eyes a revenue bump that could help plug budget gaps.
