The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its overall oil demand and supply outlook for 2025 but highlighted new trends showing that gasoline will drive consumption growth by 2026.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday, the oil producers’ group said that while jet fuel will remain the biggest contributor to demand growth in 2025, gasoline is expected to take over the lead position the following year.
OPEC attributed the sustained rise in oil consumption to the continued rebound in international air travel and strong transport activity across emerging markets.
Data cited from Argus showed that global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) to 105.14 million bpd in 2025 and by another 1.38 million bpd to 106.52 million bpd in 2026.
Although forecasts for China and India were slightly reduced, stronger outlooks for other Asian countries, Africa, and Latin America helped keep the overall non-OECD demand expansion stable at around 1.2 million bpd.
For 2025, OPEC expects jet and kerosene demand to rise by 380,000 bpd, diesel by 300,000 bpd, and gasoline by 280,000 bpd. LPG and naphtha consumption together are projected to grow by 510,000 bpd, mainly due to increased petrochemical activity.
By 2026, gasoline demand is forecast to lead the growth with a 430,000 bpd rise, followed by jet/kerosene at 360,000 bpd, and diesel at 190,000 bpd. LPG and naphtha are expected to add a combined 400,000 bpd to demand.
On the supply front, OPEC kept its estimates for non-OPEC+ production growth unchanged—810,000 bpd in 2025 and 630,000 bpd in 2026—driven largely by output increases from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
OPEC+ crude production, including Mexico, rose by 630,000 bpd in September to reach 43.05 million bpd, according to secondary data sources. The call on OPEC+ crude is expected to average 42.5 million bpd in 2025 and 43.1 million bpd in 2026, with no change from the previous forecast.
Overall, OPEC’s report indicates confidence in steady global oil demand growth over the next two years, supported by robust travel and transport activity worldwide.
