The closure of several oil refineries across Europe and the United States is tightening global fuel supply and increasing the strategic importance of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler.
In a recent report, Kpler said the permanent shutdown of refining facilities in Europe and North America has removed close to one million barrels per day of capacity from global markets west of the Suez Canal. This development has reduced flexibility in fuel supply and kept refined product markets tight, particularly for petrol, diesel and jet fuel.
The firm noted that Europe’s shrinking refining base has made the Atlantic Basin more dependent on large, late-stage refineries to balance supply. In this context, mega-refineries such as Nigeria’s 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery are becoming increasingly critical to regional and global fuel flows.
Kpler explained that while the Dangote Refinery was designed to play a stabilising role, its influence has so far been limited by operational challenges. Although the plant has commissioned its secondary units and has been supplying products to the domestic market, unresolved mechanical issues at its Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit have restricted utilisation to about 60–65 per cent.
The report added that the combination of Western refinery closures and Dangote’s slower-than-expected ramp-up has further tightened fuel markets, making any improvement at the Nigerian facility more impactful.
According to Kpler, a major corrective shutdown carried out at the refinery from mid-December, expected to last between 50 and 60 days, represents a key turning point. If successfully completed, the refinery could begin to exert stronger influence on clean fuel balances from mid-2026.
At full capacity, the Dangote Refinery is expected to supply around 300,000 barrels per day of petrol, 150,000 barrels per day of gasoil and about 140,000 barrels per day of jet fuel, volumes that could help ease pressure created by refinery shutdowns in Europe and North America.
Meanwhile, the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has announced plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move that would make it the largest refinery in the world. The Managing Director of the refinery, David Bird, recently said the expansion could be completed within three years.
Bird also disclosed that the facility currently supplies about 50 million litres of petrol to the Nigerian market and operates continuously to ensure steady fuel availability.
Engineers India Limited has been appointed to lead the refinery’s expansion project. The company confirmed it had signed a contract valued at over $350 million with the Dangote Group to provide project management and engineering, procurement and construction management services.
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