Nigeria exported about 306 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, even as local refineries continued to complain of inadequate crude supply, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The figures show that although the country produces substantial volumes of crude, a large share is sold abroad, leaving domestic refineries short of feedstock and operating far below capacity.
During the 10-month period, Nigeria produced an estimated 443.5 million barrels of crude, averaging around 1.45 million barrels per day. Of this total, exports accounted for nearly 69 per cent, leaving roughly 137 million barrels for domestic use.
The export-heavy pattern has drawn criticism from local refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has repeatedly raised concerns over limited crude availability despite the naira-for-crude arrangement. As a result, the refinery has had to import crude from the United States and other African countries to keep operations running.
Smaller modular refineries have faced similar challenges. The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said some of its members have been forced to shut down intermittently due to the lack of crude supply.
CBN data indicates that crude production fluctuated throughout the period. Output peaked at about 1.54 million barrels per day in January, dipped to 1.40 mbpd in March, rose again in mid-year, and softened toward the last quarter, settling around 1.40 mbpd in October.
Export volumes closely followed these production trends, rising during months of higher output and falling when production declined. Still, exports consistently made up a significant portion of total production.
Industry analysts say the situation highlights ongoing tension around Nigeria’s Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), a policy under the Petroleum Industry Act that requires oil producers to prioritise crude supply to local refineries before exporting.
While the policy is enforced by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), refiners argue that its impact has been weakened by the “willing buyer, willing seller” framework, which allows producers to favour foreign buyers offering dollar-denominated payments.
Speaking on the issue, CORAN’s National Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, said many local refineries have the capacity to produce far more than they currently do but are constrained by crude shortages. He cited examples of modular refineries operating at as low as 10 per cent capacity, or shutting down for months due to lack of feedstock.
According to Idoko, the pricing structure makes it difficult for domestic refiners to compete with international buyers, especially given currency pressures and limited access to foreign exchange.
Regulators, however, have maintained that crude is being made available locally. The NUPRC previously disclosed that several crude cargoes offered to local refiners were not lifted, partly due to pricing disagreements and crude quality preferences.
Despite these explanations, industry players insist that the broader issue remains unresolved. In December, Aliko Dangote revealed that his refinery still relied heavily on imported crude, noting that the United States alone supplied about 100 million barrels within a year.
Energy experts have called on the Federal Government to review crude allocation priorities, warning that continued emphasis on exports could undermine Nigeria’s goal of achieving self-sufficiency in refining and reducing dependence on imported petroleum products.
