Nigeria’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to China are expected to face challenges this year as Beijing rapidly expands its domestic gas production. Once a major LNG importer, China is now producing more gas at home, a shift that could reduce its demand for Nigerian exports.
Over the past decade, China struggled to scale up domestic gas production, particularly from shale formations, due to geological differences from U.S. basins. Today, state-owned Chinese energy companies are ramping up output and announcing new discoveries in the Sichuan and Shanxi basins.
Official data shows China produced 22.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas in November 2025, a 7.1% increase from the previous year. Analysts expect total production for 2025 to reach 263 billion cubic meters, rising to 278.5 billion cubic meters in 2026.
The increase in domestic supply is expected to reduce China’s LNG imports. Last year, liquefied gas imports fell to their lowest level in six years after 12 consecutive months of decline. Analysts project that Chinese LNG demand could drop by around 600,000 tons this year. While modest compared to global trade, this trend indicates China’s move toward energy self-sufficiency.
Nigeria remains an important LNG supplier to China, with bilateral energy trade supported by industrial projects like the Ogidigben Gas Revolution Industrial Park and government initiatives to attract investment.
However, experts warn that heavy reliance on a single market exposes Nigeria to economic risks. Johnson Chukwu, Group Managing Director of Cowry Asset Management, noted that any disruption in China’s supply chains could trigger inflation and economic instability in Nigeria.
In addition to rising domestic production, China’s pipeline gas imports, especially from Russia through the Power of Siberia pipeline, are expected to increase, further reducing LNG demand. Geopolitical factors, such as U.S.-China tariffs and EU sanctions on Russian energy, are also reshaping global LNG trade.
While Nigeria still has opportunities in Asian markets, growing Chinese production and competition from other suppliers could compress LNG prices and limit profits for exporters.
Analysts caution that although the impact may not be as dramatic as shifts in China’s oil demand, it remains an important factor for Nigeria’s LNG expansion plans.
