Nigeria’s hopes for fuel self-sufficiency are facing new pressure as the Dangote Refinery reportedly scales back its crude oil purchases, raising fears of potential shortages and price increases.

Industry sources say the refinery, which was expected to transform the country’s fuel landscape, has reduced crude intake in recent weeks due to supply and operational challenges. This slowdown is stirring concern among energy analysts and traders about the refinery’s ability to meet domestic gasoline demand.

“Right now, Dangote’s crude buying pattern is weak, and if it continues, it could tighten gasoline supply across West Africa,” said Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities. Analysts warn that reduced refinery output could keep Nigeria dependent on imported fuel — the very issue the $20 billion project was meant to solve.

The refinery, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has also paused sales of petrol in the local naira currency, citing inconsistent crude allocations. This decision has raised speculation that the company might prioritize exports to stabilize revenue, a move that could further squeeze domestic fuel availability.

Adding to the refinery’s challenges, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) recently ordered a halt to crude and gas supplies following reported mass layoffs at the plant. The standoff has worsened concerns about future production stability.

With inflation climbing and fuel costs already burdening households, stakeholders are urging both the Dangote Group and the federal government to act quickly to secure stable crude supplies and maintain steady fuel production.

As 2025 draws to a close, the spotlight remains on Dangote Refinery’s next move — whether it can ramp up operations and deliver on its promise to end Nigeria’s decades-long dependence on imported fuel, or risk fueling another round of scarcity and inflation.