Europe’s refining sector is seeing a sharp slowdown, with closures and lower production pushing output to levels not seen since the pandemic. At the same time, Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is solidifying its role as a major player in the African market.

According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), UK refineries produced 4.104 million tonnes of fuel between January and July 2025, down from 4.207 million tonnes during the same period last year. The drop comes amid the shutdown of major facilities, including Petroineos’ Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, which processed 150,000 barrels per day, and Prax’s Lindsey plant in eastern England, with 105,700 barrels per day capacity.

Gasoline production fell by 58,000 tonnes to 1.201 million tonnes, while gasoil output dropped by 92,000 tonnes to 1.357 million tonnes. Slight increases in jet-kerosene and fuel oil provided only minimal relief, highlighting Europe’s growing dependence on imports.

UK gasoline imports rose to an average of 805,000 tonnes per month, while exports slid to 344,000 tonnes monthly, marking a five-year low. Gasoline reserves also declined to 795,000 tonnes in July, a 38-month low, signaling tighter supplies.

In contrast, Africa is witnessing a transformation in refining. Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, capable of processing 650,000 barrels per day, is emerging as a reliable source of fuel for the region. As European refineries face declining capacity, Dangote is positioning Africa as a more self-reliant and influential player in global fuel markets.