ExxonMobil has increased its forecast for global carbon dioxide emissions in 2050, warning that the world could make slower progress in cutting emissions than previously expected.
In its latest annual energy outlook released on Thursday, the oil major projected that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions could fall to about 30 billion metric tonnes annually by 2050.
The new estimate is higher than the 27 billion metric tonnes Exxon projected last year.
The company also expects coal to remain a major part of the global energy mix, particularly in Asia, where it continues to play an important role in electricity generation and energy security.
Exxon now estimates that coal will account for 15 per cent of global energy use in 2050, compared with 25 per cent in 2025. The forecast is one percentage point higher than its previous projection.
Prasanna Joshi, Exxon’s director of economics and energy, said continued coal use in China and other Asian countries was one of the factors behind the revised outlook.
The company’s projections do not include the possible long-term effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as Exxon said it was still too early to determine how the situation would affect global energy markets.
Exxon also lowered its forecast for carbon capture and storage, cutting its estimate from 3.1 billion metric tonnes to 2 billion metric tonnes annually by 2050.
The company said oil demand could reach around 105 million barrels per day by 2050, compared with about 100 million bpd recorded globally last year. The projection is unchanged from its previous outlook.
Meanwhile, global electricity demand is expected to increase by 65 per cent between 2025 and 2050, driven largely by industrial activity and growing demand from data centres.
Exxon said the projected 2050 emissions level could be consistent with global temperature increases of between 2.5°C and 3°C.
The company’s estimate remains significantly above the approximately 11 billion metric tonnes of annual emissions that a United Nations body has determined would be required to limit the rise in global average temperatures.
