The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that additional oil and gas investments may be necessary to prevent a decline in global production, a stance that could further fuel its dispute with the Trump administration.

According to the agency’s latest analysis, production levels at around 15,000 oil and gas fields are falling faster than in previous years. This trend, linked partly to reliance on offshore drilling and shale operations, poses potential risks for energy markets and global supply security.

“Maintaining stable output over time will require new resource development,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, noting that insufficient investment could strain both market balance and emissions goals.

The IEA has projected that global oil demand will peak before 2030, a forecast that has been met with strong pushback from industry groups and U.S. officials. In July, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright even suggested Washington could withdraw from the agency if it fails to change its approach.

While the latest report did not revise its demand outlook, it emphasized the investment gap that remains even after accounting for ongoing and approved projects. The agency estimated that upstream investment in 2025 will total about $570 billion, which could support only a modest production increase if sustained at that level.

The findings arrive at a time when governments worldwide are balancing carbon neutrality pledges with the realities of securing reliable energy supplies, a clash that is likely to intensify in the coming years.