Nigeria’s crude oil exports are set for a surge in September and October as major Indian refiners ramp up purchases following a slowdown in Russian supply.

According to trade sources cited by Reuters, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) — the country’s two biggest state-run refiners — have secured at least 22 million barrels of non-Russian crude for delivery over the two-month period. This shift comes after U.S. diplomatic pressure prompted India to pause its long-running imports of discounted Russian oil in late July.

The buying spree marks a notable return to the spot market for Indian state refiners, who had largely stayed away since 2022, when they pivoted to Russian barrels after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

In its latest tender, IOC purchased a mix of crude grades, including U.S. Mars, Brazilian Sepia and Sururu, Libyan Sarir and Mesla, and several Middle Eastern supplies. This follows earlier deals securing Nigerian cargoes as part of an 8-million-barrel haul for September delivery.

BPCL also struck September deals through private negotiations, acquiring a total of 9 million barrels. These include 2 million barrels from Nigeria, alongside oil from Angola, the United States, and Abu Dhabi.

Combined, IOC and BPCL’s spot purchases for September and October represent around 6% of India’s crude processing volume in May, Reuters calculations indicate.

Analysts say improved arbitrage economics — the pricing advantage of shipping Atlantic Basin crude to Asia — have made African and American grades more attractive to Indian refiners seeking to diversify supply sources amid geopolitical shifts.

With Russian imports on hold and global supply chains in flux, Nigeria could emerge as a bigger winner in India’s energy trade over the coming months.