A fresh wave of jihadist attacks has rocked northern Mozambique just as energy giant TotalEnergies prepares to restart a $20 billion gas project in the troubled Cabo Delgado region, raising fears of a renewed insurgency.
Islamist militants linked to the Islamic State launched multiple assaults in May, including deadly raids on military bases and a wildlife reserve, as well as an attempted attack on a Russian research ship.
Experts warn the violence is escalating in direct response to ramped-up activity around the long-delayed gas project.”Clearly there is a cause and effect,” said Fernando Lima of the Cabo Ligado conflict observatory. “Some actions correspond exactly to important announcements in the gas area.”Jean-Marc Balencie of Attika Analysis agreed:
“The insurgents are seeing more vehicles passing by with white project managers… there’s more visible activity in the region and that’s an incentive for attacks.”The militant group, active in the region since 2017, claimed to have killed 21 soldiers across two recent attacks on Mozambican military posts.
A security expert confirmed one assault and put the death toll at 17. The military has yet to respond publicly.More dramatic incidents included an ambush in Cabo Delgado that killed three Rwandan soldiers, and a raid on a wildlife reserve in Niassa province where two rangers were killed.
The violence marks a resurgence of a conflict that had faded into the background amid post-election unrest. Conflict tracker ACLED logged at least 80 attacks in the first four months of 2025, attributing the uptick partly to improved road access after the rainy season.
TotalEnergies paused operations in 2021 after an insurgent siege in Palma left over 1,400 people dead or missing. Despite the renewed threats, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the security situation had “greatly improved,” while acknowledging “sporadic incidents.”
Rwandan troops, deployed to support Mozambican forces since 2021, now number around 5,000. But with security forces concentrated in Cabo Delgado, militants are increasingly targeting the neighboring Niassa province.
“The renewed intensity of the conflict affects regions previously considered rather stable,” said UNHCR’s Mozambique representative Xavier Creach.
The UN says more than 25,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks, adding to the 1.3 million uprooted since 2017.The violence continues to be brutal and underreported.
“The raid on the tourist wildlife lodge was for propaganda effect,” Lima noted. “It grabbed more international attention than hits on local villages,” where attacks—often involving beheadings—go largely unnoticed.
According to ACLED, more than 6,000 people have died in the conflict since it erupted.
