Nigeria produced an estimated 402.86 million barrels of crude oil between January and September 2026, with a gross market value of approximately N52.12tn, based on production figures, international oil prices and the prevailing exchange rate.
The estimated value is equivalent to $39.15bn, calculated using an exchange rate of N1,331 to the dollar. The figures, derived from Central Bank of Nigeria data, cover crude oil only and exclude condensates and natural gas.
Production volumes were calculated using the country’s average daily output for each month multiplied by the number of days in that month. Nigeria’s output ranged from 36.68 million barrels in February to 47.43 million barrels in May.
January recorded 45.26 million barrels, while March produced 42.78 million barrels. Output stood at 44.70 million barrels in April and 46.80 million barrels in June.
Production reached 46.81 million barrels in July and 46.50 million barrels in August, before settling at 45.90 million barrels in September.
The value of the output varied with movements in the price of Bonny Light, Nigeria’s crude oil benchmark. The estimated value was $3.08bn in January, rising to $4.54bn in March and reaching a high of $5.66bn in April.
May’s production was valued at $5.34bn, while the figures stood at $4.13bn in June, $3.97bn in July, $4.40bn in August and $5.38bn in September. February recorded the lowest monthly value at $2.65bn.
In naira terms, April generated the highest estimated gross value at about N7.54tn, followed by September at N7.16tn and May at N7.11tn. February had the lowest value, estimated at N3.53tn.
The changes in crude oil prices during the period were linked in the report to developments in the US-Iran crisis and subsequent changes in the ceasefire situation involving Tehran and Washington.
Bonny Light rose from $68.05 per barrel in January to $106.09 in March, before reaching $126.71 in April. Prices later declined to $88.24 in June and $84.81 in July, then climbed to $94.64 in August and $117.12 in September.
However, the N52.12tn estimate represents the gross market value of crude oil produced by all operators, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies and indigenous producers. It does not represent the amount received by the Federal Government.
The calculation excludes production expenses, royalties, taxes, domestic crude allocations, export volumes, local consumption and other deductions that affect actual earnings.
The estimated value comes against the backdrop of the Federal Government’s 2026 budget assumptions, which are based on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels, a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
