Nigeria’s oil production fell to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February 2026, intensifying supply challenges for local refineries already struggling with insufficient domestic crude.

The latest figures from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that Nigeria missed its 1.5 million bpd production quota, producing 1.314 million bpd, down from 1.459 million bpd in January. This represents a decline of 146,000 barrels per day and widens the gap between actual output and the OPEC allocation.

The shortfall is affecting domestic refining, particularly the 650,000 bpd Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which relies on crude supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). The refinery receives only five cargoes monthly, far below the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude arrangement, forcing it to import additional crude at international market prices.

A senior NNPC official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the company is sourcing crude from international traders at competitive rates to ensure the refinery continues operations despite temporary domestic shortages.

Despite a brief production recovery in January, Nigeria has consistently failed to meet its OPEC quota since August 2025. Efforts by the government and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to boost output have yet to yield lasting results.

NUPRC’s new chief executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has promised to increase crude production by recovering idle volumes, reducing losses, and speeding up oil field operations without imposing extra regulatory burdens. These efforts align with the Federal Government’s plan to raise production to 2 million bpd by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030.