Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 15.93 per cent in May 2026 as higher global oil prices increased domestic fuel and transportation costs, according to the Meristem 2026 Half-Year Outlook.

The report said the country’s 11-month decline in inflation came to an end in March after global energy market disruptions triggered a fresh wave of price increases.

Meristem attributed the development to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which disrupted global oil supplies and pushed Brent crude prices above $110 per barrel at the peak of the crisis. The report said the rise in international oil prices translated into higher fuel and logistics costs in Nigeria, contributing to renewed inflationary pressure.

Despite the increase in inflation, Nigeria’s economy recorded strong growth during the first quarter of the year. Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year, its fastest first-quarter expansion in a decade, driven largely by the telecommunications and financial services sectors.

The report also noted that stronger trade performance and sustained foreign portfolio inflows lifted the country’s foreign reserves above $50 billion in June for the first time since 2009.

However, Nigeria’s oil sector failed to fully benefit from higher crude prices due to maintenance work at major production facilities, including the Bonga field. Although crude production recovered to 1.70 million barrels per day in May, it remained below the Federal Government’s budget benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.

Meristem said the inflation rebound reflects a broader global trend, with major central banks responding to energy-driven price pressures by maintaining tighter monetary policies.

The report added that Nigerian policymakers will need to balance efforts to sustain economic growth while tackling rising inflation and the increasing cost of living in the second half of the year.