Nigeria 2025 budget has come under mounting pressure following a sharp drop in crude oil prices, with Bonny Light selling at an average of $60 per barrel—down from $65 just a day earlier.

The 2025 budget was pegged at $75 per barrel and projected daily production of over two million barrels per day (bpd), including condensates.

However, the latest figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show March production at just 1.6 million bpd—falling short by over 300,000 bpd.

With crude oil revenue forming the backbone of Nigeria’s budget financing, this shortfall could trigger major disruptions in budget execution.“We are witnessing a major drop in crude oil prices, expected to affect the implementation of the nation’s budget,” said Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of Petroleum Price NG, in a phone interview with Vanguard.

The international oil market slump is largely attributed to increased output globally. OPEC and its allies, OPEC+, are set to phase out voluntary output cuts and will ramp up production in May by 411,000 bpd—further flooding the market.

Farouk Ahmed, CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), acknowledged the dilemma: “As consumers, we are happy that the price is coming down, but as a nation, it’s not good for our economy because our revenue inflow is also impacted.”

He also pointed fingers at global political uncertainty. “Most importantly, what is even destabilising the market is the inconsistencies in the way President Trump sends his policy signals.

He moves today. Tomorrow, he reverses,” Ahmed noted.If the trend persists, downstream petroleum marketers may lower depot prices, though the broader economic implications remain a growing concern.