Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other members of the OPEC+ alliance are expected to agree on a new oil production hike of up to 500,000 barrels per day when they meet virtually on Sunday. The move comes as global oil prices continue to fall, with Brent crude slipping below $65 a barrel — its lowest level in months.

The eight key producers, known as the “Voluntary Eight” (V8) — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — have already boosted supply by about 2.5 million barrels per day since April. This marks a major shift in OPEC+ strategy from cutting output to maintain prices, to increasing production to regain market share.

Industry analysts say the group could approve another round of expansion to stay competitive against growing output from countries like the United States, Brazil, and Canada, whose production levels are near record highs.

While some experts anticipate a significant increase, others remain cautious. “The group has surprised the market several times with bigger-than-expected hikes,” noted Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will rise by about 700,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. However, OPEC’s own outlook is more optimistic, forecasting growth of around 1.3 million barrels in 2025 and 1.4 million in 2026.

Despite these forecasts, some analysts warn that the world could be heading toward oversupply. “Signs of a long-expected glut are becoming increasingly clear,” said Tamas Varga of PVM.

Russia, OPEC+’s second-largest producer, is reportedly wary of approving a large increase, fearing it could drive prices even lower. The outcome of Sunday’s meeting will determine whether the alliance continues to prioritize market share over price stability in the months ahead.