Nigeria was unable to produce or transport about 42.55 million barrels of crude oil and condensate as scheduled in 2025, with the affected volumes estimated to be worth $2.97bn, largely due to pipeline disruptions and other operational challenges.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed this in its 2025 annual report, which showed that the industry recorded an average daily production deferment of 116,563 barrels during the year.
According to the report, pipeline failures, equipment breakdowns, terminal disruptions and maintenance activities were among the major factors affecting crude oil production and transportation.
The commission identified outages along major oil transportation routes, particularly the Trans Niger Pipeline, Nembe Creek Trunk Line and Trans Forcados Pipeline, as the leading causes of production delays.
It also noted that technical difficulties, scheduled maintenance and delays in loading vessels at export terminals forced some oil producers to temporarily shut down their wells.
A breakdown of the monthly figures showed that October recorded the highest daily production deferment at 172,761 barrels, followed by March with 169,856 barrels and December with 169,786 barrels.
July recorded the lowest figure at 25,780 barrels per day.
Production disruptions increased significantly in the first quarter, with daily deferment rising from 76,002 barrels in January to 134,793 barrels in February before reaching 169,856 barrels in March.
Although the figures declined in the following months, the challenges persisted. Daily deferment stood at 113,132 barrels in April and 102,480 barrels in May before dropping to 55,445 barrels in June and 25,780 barrels in July.
The volume began rising again in August, reaching 95,639 barrels daily, before increasing to 115,081 barrels in September and peaking in October.
November and December recorded 169,340 and 169,786 barrels per day, respectively, indicating that production challenges remained significant towards the end of the year.
The NUPRC estimated the value of the affected crude using the monthly average prices of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude grade.
However, the $2.97bn represents the estimated market value of the delayed production and not confirmed financial losses, as some of the affected barrels could be recovered and produced later.
United Capital’s 2025 Economic Review and 2026 Outlook put the average price of Bonny Light at $70.88 per barrel in 2025, compared with $82.40 in 2024.
The figures highlight the impact of unreliable oil transportation infrastructure on Nigeria’s efforts to increase crude production and maximise revenue from its petroleum resources.
Production deferment occurs when oil companies cannot produce or transport crude at planned levels because of problems affecting pipelines, wells, production facilities or export terminals.
Although some delayed production may eventually be recovered, prolonged disruptions can reduce immediate export volumes, foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.
