The Nigerian Senate has lowered the oil price benchmark for the 2026 national budget from $64.8 to $60 per barrel, while keeping other fiscal and macroeconomic projections unchanged. The move comes just before President Bola Tinubu is set to present the budget.
Senator Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, presented the recommendation during an extended plenary session. He cited ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East as key factors affecting global crude prices.
The Senate also approved oil price benchmarks of $65 for 2027 and $70 for 2028. Domestic crude production projections remain steady, at 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026 and rising gradually to 1.92 mbpd by 2028, with lawmakers expressing confidence in reforms aimed at stabilizing output.
On the macroeconomic front, the Senate endorsed projected exchange rates of N1,512 per dollar in 2026, N1,432.15 in 2027, and N1,383.18 in 2028. Inflation is expected to ease from 16.5% in 2026 to 9% in 2028, while real GDP growth is projected to climb from 4.68% in 2026 to nearly 8% by 2028. The projections are supported by anticipated benefits from tax reforms and ongoing economic measures.
A major recommendation from the committee is the implementation of a National Scanning Policy within the Nigeria Revenue Service’s National Single Window initiative. The policy aims to strengthen revenue collection, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages, and boost transparency.
The 2026 budget framework approved by the Senate sets total expenditure at N54.46 trillion, with retained revenue estimated at N34.33 trillion and new borrowings at N17.88 trillion. Debt service obligations are projected at N15.52 trillion, while capital expenditure is set at N20.13 trillion. Recurrent non-debt spending will total N15.27 trillion, and N1.376 trillion is allocated for pensions and retirees’ benefits. The fiscal deficit is pegged at N20.13 trillion.
Senate President Godswill Akpabio praised the Finance Committee for their work, describing it as a solid foundation for President Tinubu’s upcoming budget presentation before the end of December.
