TotalEnergies SE says it is anticipating higher earnings for the third quarter of 2025, boosted by increased oil and gas production and improved refining margins across its European operations.

According to the French energy firm’s trading update, a $10 per barrel drop in oil prices compared to last year is unlikely to dampen results, as stronger production and downstream performance are expected to lift revenue and cash flow by up to 5%.

The company estimates that its oil and gas output rose 4% year-on-year, reaching around 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. It also expects its exploration and production segment to deliver results at least 4% higher than the second quarter.

Refining and marketing activities are expected to post a $400 million to $600 million cash flow increase from a year earlier, thanks to better refining margins in Europe.

Following the update, TotalEnergies’ shares rose 2.6%, signaling investor confidence ahead of its official Q3 earnings release on October 30, 2025.

While the company has recently faced lower profits and scaled back share buybacks to manage debt, it expects stronger operating performance and a $1–2 billion boost in working capital to support balance sheet improvement.

TotalEnergies also projects stable cash flow from its liquefied natural gas and power divisions, and its gearing ratio—a measure of debt—could fall by 0.5% to 1% compared to the previous quarter.

The upcoming results will show how effectively TotalEnergies is navigating production growth and refining efficiency amid ongoing market volatility.