The U.S. decision to limit Chevron’s operations in Venezuela may have unintended geopolitical consequences, with adversarial powers like Russia, China, and Iran poised to fill the vacuum left by American oil companies.
Chevron halted most of its activities in Venezuela on May 27, following the expiration of a broader license to operate. The U.S. company retains only a narrow authorization that bars it from extracting or exporting Venezuelan crude.
Though the move is intended to pressure President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, experts warn it could backfire.
“Denying authorization to Chevron and other American oil companies in Venezuela will only create a vacuum that will be filled by countries hostile to the United States,” writes Luis Fleischman, a professor and national security analyst.
Russia is already deeply entrenched in Venezuela’s oil sector. What was once ExxonMobil’s Orinoco Belt operation is now controlled by a Russian state-owned company. Fleischman highlights that Russian firms have helped PDVSA—the Venezuelan state oil firm—sustain production despite U.S. sanctions. Their involvement includes “joint ventures, acquisitions, investments, loans, debt rescheduling, oil field allocations, crude oil trade, and cooperation agreements.”
Likewise, China and Iran have stepped in. Chinese refiners are buying rebranded Venezuelan oil, bypassing sanctions. Iran has provided Venezuela with oil diluents, helped repair its largest refinery, and signed contracts to build ships to transport crude.
“Iran is already an important Venezuelan ally,” Fleischman notes. “It was instrumental in keeping oil production going when ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions were imposed.”
Fleischman argues that while regime change in Venezuela is critical for regional stability and U.S. security, sanctions alone are insufficient. “Sanctions have not only proven ineffective, but they have actually pushed Venezuela to strengthen ties with other U.S. adversaries.”
He calls for smarter strategies and cautions against withdrawing American presence from Venezuela’s oil industry. “Denying authorization to Chevron and others will encourage the presence of elements hostile to the United States close to our borders.”
With Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado gaining momentum after the disputed 2024 elections, Fleischman says the time for U.S. intelligence and diplomacy to act is now.
“This is the moment to be creative,” he warns. “Imposing sanctions is an essential but lazy solution, particularly when we are ceding space to adversaries and foes to take over.”
